Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Optimized Greenfield SR Trades for Jan 3

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Many of my orders went unfilled with Tuesday's market -- as many of you know, I only buy strength, so many of my entries did not hit their stop market levels.  Here are the trades that filled:


Click on the image to enlarge.

The orders were set to activate after 9:40 a.m.; this allows the overnight book to clear and any opening volatility to be absorbed.  You can see that a few triggered right away, but most did not.

My opening trades for this morning are as follows:

Again, click on the image to enlarge.

The only reason these are GTC is that I cannot enter a day order well after the market close.  If these do not fill today I'll cancel all open orders and re-establish the list for tomorrow.  The mixture and quantity may change tonight, as I run the updates using the most recent closing data.

Even with the limited number of trades filled, the portfolio is 57% complete and is on sound ground with respect to historical return and volatility.  Here is the known efficient frontier of all the stocks that are being held as well as being considered:


The present ownership is the yellow diamond in the middle of the figure and the purple dot, where the blue line intersects the red line, is the target, fully invested portfolio.  Here are the present numbers:


The invested configuration has a historical 14.42% return with a 7.42% volatility level, and the fully-invested target is about the same return with lower volatility, giving a new SR level of 2.03, which is the first time I've ever seen something this high in terms of SR.

I fully expect that SR values right now are artificial, only because the market is on a tear upwards with little to no volatility (the VIX is at 9.61 as I write, which is extremely low).

I note that the average dividend yield of the portfolio is 2.62%, well above the risk-free-rate (RFR) value of 1.26%.  The software does not consider dividend yield in the "Returns" calculation.

There is nothing more to do today except let the orders execute.  I do not expect any of the present holdings to show any signs of a sell signal (to be covered when it occurs) at least until the company reports earnings.  WBS will be first up, as it reports earnings on 1/18 before the market open.

Make it a great day folks.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd









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