Monday, May 15, 2017

Trades into Monday, May 15th

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There are no new buy orders for today

There is ONE sell order for today.

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The TPS 1-2-3-4 strategy has been holding onto a 10% position in GLD for a couple of weeks, and with Friday's close, as signaled that this should be closed at the open.

The order is 

  • STC 15 GLD market GTC at 9:32 a.m.
The position will be closed at a loss.



~~~~~~~

I run the screens daily and there have been no order positions.  I expect with a pullback in the market we will see new opportunities emerge.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Thursday, April 27, 2017

Trades into Thursday, April 27th

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~~~~~~~

There are no new purchase orders for today.

There are no new sell orders for today.

~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Trades into Wednesday, April 26th

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There is one new purchase order for today.

There are no new sell orders for today; the account is flat into the open.

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The account value is $75,069.05.

The new order is in the TPS strategy.  TPS allows 4 fully-loaded positions, so a fully-loaded position size is $18,767.  This is the first scale-in, which is a 10% position.  Hence, the first order size is less than or equal to $1,877.

GLD closed at 120.25, indicating that 15 shares should be purchased.  The order for this morning is:
  • BTO 15 shares GLD market GTC at 9;32 a.m. ET
I wait 2 minutes before buying/selling to allow the overnight book to clear.

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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Trades into Tuesday, April 25th AND Performance Update

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There are no new purchase orders for today.

There are no new sell orders for today; the account is flat.

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A Quick Performance Update

The nice thing about running this strategy with real money is that I can simply run an account report and we have the numbers.  There are two images here; click on each to enlarge:



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As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Trades into Wednesday, April 19th

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I'm traveling this week so this will be brief.

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There are 3 buy orders for the open.

There are no sell orders for the open.

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XLB, in the %B strategy, has signalled a second entry. The account value is $74,235.38.

%B allows 10 strategies at a 90%/10% scale-in ratio.  A fully-loaded position is $7,424 and 10% of this is $742.  The order is

  • BTO 12 shares XLB market GTC at 9:32 a.m.
EWH and XLV have signalled entry in the RSI 25 strategy.  RSI 25 allows 8 positions at a 50%/50% scale in.  A fully-loaded position is $9,279 and half of this is $4,640.  The orders are:
  • BTO 208 shares EWH market GTC at 9:32 a.m.
  • BTO 62 shares XLV market GTC at 9:32 a.m.
~~~~~~~~~ 

Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Trades into Tuesday, April 18th

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I'm traveling this week so this will be brief.

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There is 1 buy order for the open.

There are no sell orders for the open.

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XLB, in the %B strategy, has signalled entry. The account value is $74,235.38.

%B allows 10 strategies at a 90%/10% scale-in ratio.  A fully-loaded position is $7,424 and 90% of this is $6,681.  The order is

  • BTO 129 shares XLB market GTC at 9:32 a.m.
~~~~~~~~~ 

Remember, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd

Monday, April 17, 2017

Trades into Monday, April 17th

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If you are on the blog page in a web browser from a computer, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did in early March 2017.

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There are 2 purchase orders for the open.

There are no sell orders for the open.

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I moved some monies around.  The account value has increased to $74,235.38.

The two orders are with the TPS strategy.  Both are 10% entries.  The TPS strategy allows 4 open positions total.  Each position, if fully loaded, would be $18,558.85.  A 10% entry is $1,856.
  • BTO 47 shares EEM market at 9;32 a.m.
  • BTO 25 shares XLV market at 9;32 a.m.
~~~~~~~~~

There are no option candidates for Monday.

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3-Month Rolling Performance

Historical, rolling, annualized 3-month performance from the 3-month backscan is as follows.  The numbers will be different than previous blog entries because this is a ROLLING snapshot -- the period shown below is 1/16/2017 to 4/15/2017.  

Summary Value
Total Return $1,107.18
Total Realized Return $1,335.89
Gross Profit $1,840.60
Gross Loss ($504.71)
Open Trade P/L ($228.71)
   
Number of Trades 71
Number of Winning Trades 49
Number of Losing Trades 22
% Profitable 69.01%
   
Average Trade $18.82
Average Trade (%) 0.29%
Standard Deviation Trade $53.96
Standard Deviation Trade (%) 0.86%
Largest Winning Trade $294.25
Largest Losing Trade ($149.90)
   
Profit Factor 3.65
Average Win / Average Loss 1.64
Sharpe Ratio 0.1603
K-Ratio 0.3892
Return Retracement Ratio 18.3526
   
Compounded Annual Return 4.78%
Compounded Monthly Return 0.38%
   
Average Annual Return $1,107.18
Average Annual Return (%) 1.11%
Average Monthly Return $276.79
Average Monthly Return (%) 0.28%
   
Percent Days Profitable 38.71%
Percent Months Profitable 75.00%
Percent Years Profitable 100.00%
   
Commissions on Futures $0.00
Commissions on Currencies $0.00
Commissions on Equities $285.94
Total Commissions $285.94

The 3d High/Low, MDD, and R3 strategies have been omitted from these results, as it is underperforming in the latest scan.

~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd


Saturday, April 8, 2017

Weekend & Performance Update, Trades into Monday, April 10th

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There is one sell order for the open on Monday.

There are two buy orders for the open on Monday.

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XLV, which is presently held in the RSI 25 strategy, closed Friday with an RSI(4) > 50.3, signalling an exit.  The order is:

  • STC 56 shares XLV market at 9:32 a.m.  
The position is presently above the water line so provided it fills above $74.11 it should go into the win column.

The two buy orders are each in the TPS strategy.  Base portfolio size is $67,483, including the recent gains.


The TPS strategy allows 4 positions.  A fully loaded position would be $16,870.  One of the positions is a new, 10% scale in size, and the other is a 30% scale-in size.  10% is $1,687 and 30% is $5,061.  The orders are:
  • BTO 42 shares EEM market at 9:32 (TPS 10%)
  • BTO 81 shares EFA market at 9:32 (TPS 30%)
The present position(s) in EFA are collectively only $13 under the waterline despite holding 389 shares, so we are having a hard time moving aggressively lower (but *could* certainly go lower), so I am not concerned with the concentration in this ETF.

~~~~~~~~~

There are no option candidates for Monday.

~~~~~~~~~

Performance to Date

Here are some stats for those of you who have asked:

Number of winning trades:  35
Number of losing trades:  12
Win/Loss Ratio:  2.92: 1
% Wins:  74.47%
Average Win:  $35.66
Average Loss:  ($47.67)
Profit Factor:  2.182
PRR:  1.407

Total Gain since 2/1/2017, net of commissions:  1.02%
Annual Rate of Return:  6.42%
Buy and Hold Return:  0.35%
Average Monthly Return:  $228.82
Return Retracement Ratio:  14.34

Trading Period:  1 Mth, 27 Dys
Percent of Time in Market:  54.41%
Risk Adjusted Annual Rate of Return:  11.79%

Starting Portfolio Size:  $66,603

Here are various charts for your questioning:

Click on the image to enlarge.

Click on the image to enlarge.

Click on the image to enlarge.

Click on the image to enlarge.


Click on the image to enlarge.


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3-Month Rolling Performance

Historical, rolling, annualized 3-month performance from the 3-month backscan is as follows.  The numbers will be different than previous blog entries because this is a ROLLING snapshot -- the period shown below is 1/9/2017 to 4/8/2017.  

Summary Value
Total Return $1,311.20
Total Realized Return $1,360.60
Gross Profit $2,260.97
Gross Loss ($900.37)
Open Trade P/L ($49.40)
Number of Trades 63
Number of Winning Trades 41
Number of Losing Trades 22
% Profitable 65.08%
Average Trade $21.60
Average Trade (%) 0.26%
Standard Deviation Trade $76.78
Standard Deviation Trade (%) 0.99%
Largest Winning Trade $294.25
Largest Losing Trade ($243.80)
Profit Factor 2.51
Average Win / Average Loss 1.35
Sharpe Ratio 0.1128
K-Ratio 0.1935
Return Retracement Ratio 7.2195
Compounded Annual Return 5.55%
Compounded Monthly Return 0.45%
Average Annual Return $1,311.20
Average Annual Return (%) 1.31%
Average Monthly Return $327.80
Average Monthly Return (%) 0.33%
Percent Days Profitable 39.68%
Percent Months Profitable 75.00%
Percent Years Profitable 100.00%
Commissions on Futures $0.00
Commissions on Currencies $0.00
Commissions on Equities $287.47
Total Commissions $287.47
The 3d High/Low strategy has been omitted from these results, as it is underperforming in the latest scan.

~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd





Friday, April 7, 2017

Trades into Friday, April 7th

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There is one ETF purchase order for Friday.

There are no Option purchases for Friday.

There are no sell orders for Friday.

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The purchase order is with the TPS strategy, and is the second entry:

  • BTO 42 shares EFA market at 9:32 a.m.

Base portfolio size is $67,483, including the recent gains.

The TPS strategy allows 4 positions.  A fully loaded position would be $16,870.  A 20% scale-in is $3,374 in size.

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3-Month Rolling Performance

Historical, rolling, annualized 3-month performance from the 3-month backscan is as follows.  The numbers will be different than previous blog entries because this is a ROLLING snapshot -- the period shown below is 1/8/2017 to 4/7/2017.  

Summary Value
Total Return $1,288.47
Total Realized Return $1,360.60
Gross Profit $2,260.97
Gross Loss ($900.37)
Open Trade P/L ($72.13)
   
Number of Trades 63
Number of Winning Trades 41
Number of Losing Trades 22
% Profitable 65.08%
   
Average Trade $21.60
Average Trade (%) 0.26%
Standard Deviation Trade $76.78
Standard Deviation Trade (%) 0.99%
Largest Winning Trade $294.25
Largest Losing Trade ($243.80)
   
Profit Factor 2.51
Average Win / Average Loss 1.35
Sharpe Ratio 0.1116
K-Ratio 0.1919
Return Retracement Ratio 7.059
   
Compounded Annual Return 5.52%
Compounded Monthly Return 0.44%
   
Average Annual Return $1,288.47
Average Annual Return (%) 1.29%
Average Monthly Return $322.12
Average Monthly Return (%) 0.32%
   
Percent Days Profitable 38.71%
Percent Months Profitable 75.00%
Percent Years Profitable 100.00%
   
Commissions on Futures $0.00
Commissions on Currencies $0.00
Commissions on Equities $285.26
Total Commissions $285.26

The 3d High/Low strategy has been omitted from these results, as it is underperforming in the latest scan.

~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd


Thursday, April 6, 2017

Trades into Thursday, April 6th

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If you are on the blog page in a web browser from a computer, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did in early March 2017.

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There are 2 sell orders for the open.

There are 10 buy orders for the open.

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The two sell orders are in the EWT and FXI positions.
  • STC 370 shares FXI market at 9:32 a.m.
  • STC 303 shares EWT market at 9:32 a.m.
I took the trades at the close yesterday afternoon (3:59 pm ET) and received 38.91 and 33.61, respectively.

The buy orders, and the respective strategies in parenthesis, are as follows:

  • BTO 68 shares EFA market at 9:32 a.m. (RSI 25)
  • BTO 115 shares XHB market at 9:32 a.m. (RSI 25)
  • BTO 136 shares EFA market at 9:32 a.m. (R3)
  • BTO 230 shares XHB market at 9:32 a.m. (R3)
  • BTO 21 shares EFA market at 9:32 a.m. (TPS)
  • BTO 29 shares EFA market at 9:32 a.m. (RSI 10/6)
  • BTO 46 shares XHB market at 9:32 a.m. (TPS)
  • BTO 54 shares EFA market at 9:32 a.m. (MDD)
  • BTO 56 shares XLV market at 9:32 a.m. (RSI 25)
  • BTO 66 shares EWJ market at 9:32 a.m. (MDD)
Base portfolio size is $67,483, including the recent gains.

The TPS strategy allows 4 positions.  A fully loaded position would be $16,870.  The new positions in EFA and XHB are first time entries to this strategy and are at 10% scale-in, so each order is $1,687 in size.

The RSI 25 strategy allows 8 positions.  This is a fully-loaded position size of $8,435.  The scale-in is 50/50, so each order is $4,217 in size.

The R3 strategy also allows 8 positions with no 2nd entry (each position is 100%).  Hence, the order size is $8,435.

The MDD strategy allows 12 positions.  A fully loaded position would be $5,623 in size.  The scale-in is 60/40, and these are 1st entries.  hence the size is $3,374.

The RSI 10/6 strategy allows 13 positions.  A fully loaded position would be $5,191.  The scale-in is 35/65, making the first entry $1,816 in size.

Combining orders to take advantage of commissions, we have
  • BTO 308 shares EFA market at 9;32 a.m.
  • BTO 391 shares XHB market at 9:32 a.m.
  • BTO  56 shares XLV market at 9:32 a.m.
  • BTO 66 shares EWJ market at 9:32 a.m.
~~~~~~~

The only option on these four ETFs worth pursuing is with EFA.  If I sell the April 62.5 call at $83 my total gain could be another 1.35% and monthly gain equating to 2.81%.  I am placing the following order:
  • STO 3 EFA 170421P62.5 0.83 limit GTC
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3-Month Rolling Performance

Historical, rolling, annualized 3-month performance from the 3-month backscan is as follows.  The numbers will be different than previous blog entries because this is a ROLLING snapshot -- the period shown below is 1/7/2017 to 4/6/2017.  Roughly multiply the values by 4 to get an annual value (dollars and trades only; the other percentage metrics are accurate for the time period and need no multiplication).

Summary Value
Total Return $1,535.00
Total Realized Return $1,260.05
Gross Profit $2,448.17
Gross Loss ($1,188.12)
Open Trade P/L $274.95
   
Number of Trades 67
Number of Winning Trades 46
Number of Losing Trades 21
% Profitable 68.66%
   
Average Trade $18.81
Average Trade (%) 0.29%
Standard Deviation Trade $80.29
Standard Deviation Trade (%) 1.01%
Largest Winning Trade $211.72
Largest Losing Trade ($293.40)
   
Profit Factor 2.06
Average Win / Average Loss 0.94
Sharpe Ratio 0.1132
K-Ratio 0.1481
Return Retracement Ratio 6.4229
   
Compounded Annual Return 6.68%
Compounded Monthly Return 0.53%
   
Average Annual Return $1,535.00
Average Annual Return (%) 1.54%
Average Monthly Return $383.75
Average Monthly Return (%) 0.38%
   
Percent Days Profitable 45.90%
Percent Months Profitable 75.00%
Percent Years Profitable 100.00%
   
Commissions on Futures $0.00
Commissions on Currencies $0.00
Commissions on Equities $321.39
Total Commissions $321.39


Note that no strategies are omitted from these results.

~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd





Wednesday, April 5, 2017

Trades into Wednesday, April 5th

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.
If you are on the blog page in a web browser from a computer, please subscribe to this using the "Follow by Email" link to the left.  Having your email helps me to notify you when Google mucks up email distribution, as they did in early March 2017.

~~~~~~~

There is one buy order for the open.

There are no sell orders for the open.

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The buy order is:
  • BTO 45 shares XHB market at 9;32 a.m.
The XHB order is from the TPS strategy.  The TPS strategy allows for 4 open positions, so the fully-loaded position size is $67,408 / 4 = $16,852.  10% of this is $1,685.

~~~~~~

Three option orders filled yesterday:

  • EFA 170421P62 @ 0.52 
  • EWJ 170421C52 @ 0.20 
  • EFA 170421P62.5 @ 0.75

All have a positive value this morning.

There are no option orders available today that meet the 500 contract open interest minimum.
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3-Month Rolling Performance

Historical, rolling, annualized 3-month performance from the 3-month backscan is as follows.  The numbers will be different than previous blog entries because this is a ROLLING snapshot -- the period shown below is 1/6/2017 to 4/5/2017.  Roughly multiply the values by 4 to get an annual value (dollars and trades only; the other percentage metrics are accurate for the time period and need no multiplication).



Summary Value
Total Return $1,393.41
Total Realized Return $1,230.22
Gross Profit $2,211.54
Gross Loss ($981.32)
Open Trade P/L $163.19
Number of Trades 61
Number of Winning Trades 39
Number of Losing Trades 22
% Profitable 63.93%
Average Trade $20.17
Average Trade (%) 0.29%
Standard Deviation Trade $78.70
Standard Deviation Trade (%) 1.00%
Largest Winning Trade $294.25
Largest Losing Trade ($243.80)
Profit Factor 2.25
Average Win / Average Loss 1.27
Sharpe Ratio 0.1298
K-Ratio 0.2248
Return Retracement Ratio 7.6103
Compounded Annual Return 5.91%
Compounded Monthly Return 0.47%
Average Annual Return $1,393.41
Average Annual Return (%) 1.39%
Average Monthly Return $348.35
Average Monthly Return (%) 0.35%
Percent Days Profitable 37.70%
Percent Months Profitable 100.00%
Percent Years Profitable 100.00%
Commissions on Futures $0.00
Commissions on Currencies $0.00
Commissions on Equities $276.02
Total Commissions $276.02




The 3d High/Low and MDD strategies are omitted from these results, as they are underperforming in the latest scan.

~~~~~~~~~

As with all my ramblings, you are responsible for your own investment decisions and I am not.  Please do your own diligence, and please take ownership for your actions.

Regards,

pgd